Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

437
FXUS63 KJKL 070035 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Saturday, but above
  normal temperatures to varying extent will also persist through
  the middle of next week.

- A cold front will approach Saturday and move through Saturday
  night, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms
  could produce strong to damaging winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also expected around the middle of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky deep in the warm sector of
a system approaching from the west with a warm front located near
the southern shore of the Great Lakes. This allowed for soaring,
record high temperatures today along with nearly dry conditions -
noting the pair of stray thunderstorms that briefly popped up in
the western Cumberland Valley late in the afternoon. Currently,
temperatures are coming off the extreme warmth with readings
running in the mid 70s for most of the area but falling back to
the mid 60s in a few of the sheltered valley spots. Meanwhile,
amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally
rather moist in the low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
while also tweaking the minimal PoPs through the night. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 359 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms have occurred over south central
and extreme eastern KY this afternoon due to diurnal heating and
destabilization. These should die out toward evening with loss of
heating, leaving a quiet night with mainly clear skies to start
out. With ongoing warm air advection, this will favor
ridge/valley temperature differences.

The next weather system to affect the area is a cold front
currently extending from the southern plains to the upper Midwest,
supported by an elongated upper trough a little further to the
northwest. Thunderstorms are currently initiating ahead of the
front over eastern OK. These are expected to develop
northeastward, with the area of convection then shifting southeast
and moving through the JKL forecast area on Saturday afternoon.
Winds fields will strengthen and result in modest shear (mainly
speed) and fairly strong low level flow (850 speeds of 40-50 kts).
Instability doesn`t look overly impressive, with surface based
CAPE of 1-2K. All things considered, the SPC marginal to slight
risk seems reasonable for mainly a wind threat.

Additional showers/thunderstorms are forecast just ahead of the
cold front when it arrives later Saturday night. However, shear
and instability look less impressive by then. The northern portion
of the aforementioned upper trough will be progressive and allow
the front to make a full passage, probably by Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

A brief cool down will be underway at the start of the long-term
period as a cold front sags across southeastern Kentucky on
Sunday morning. The front`s parent 500 hPa trough will be
broadening over the Northeastern CONUS with the better forcing
shearing away to the northeast amidst an increasing quasi-zonal
flow pattern. Meanwhile, a southern stream closed low around 555
dam is noted over or just offshore the Baja California.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag southward, string
out east-west, and stall to our south over the Tennessee Valley and
Southern Appalachians by Sunday afternoon/evening. Weak surface
high pressure then builds along the spine of the Central and
Southern Appalachians for Sunday night as heights begin to slowly
rise. Heading into the new work week, the southern stream upper low
will begin drifting eastward toward the Gulf States while an
initially low-amplitude trough crosses the Northern Rockies and
gradually amplifies as it propagates eastward across the Northern
CONUS. The stalled front to our south dissipates and is replaced
by a new warm front consolidating north of the Ohio River amidst
increasing southerly return flow. This will send temperatures
rising back to 20 or more degrees above normal from Monday
afternoon through Wednesday.

With that renewed warmth, weak diurnally-modulated instability
and minor disturbances ejecting out of the southern stream low
could support at least weak convection at times beginning Monday
night and persisting until the arrival of a cold front in the
late Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. Shear will also
increase with time under a strengthening subtropical jet stream.
AI and machine-learning severe convective weather probabilities
suggest the possibility of at least isolated severe weather
hazards on both Tuesday and Wednesday, though instability still
appears to be a significant mitigating factor at this time.
The eventual depth of the northern stream trough as well as any
phasing with the southern stream energy by mid-week varies
significantly in the deterministic guidance from run-to-run and
model-to-model. More phased solutions such as the 12z GDPS/ECMWF
would support the cold front being more potent, surging southeastward
through eastern Kentucky and bringing a brief surge of below
normal temperatures by Thursday. Less phased solutions such as the
00z ECMWF/12z GFS would support a comparably modest cold front
settling across our region mid-week with subsequent near normal
temperatures.

In sensible terms, look for showers to gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast on Sunday with subsequent clearing. It will
still be mild for this time of year, with Sunday`s high
temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of I-64 to the upper
60s far southeast valleys. A partly cloudy and cool night follows
with lows ranging mainly in the 40s. Warmer temperatures then
return from Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 70s
(perhaps nearing or exceeding 80F in warmer locales). Likely rain
chances return on Tuesday (60 to 70 percent chance) with more
widespread activity (70 to 90 percent chance) probable on
Wednesday into early Thursday. Temperatures return closer to
or even below normal levels for mid-March by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the bulk of the period, with
pre-frontal showers/thunderstorms likely holding off until after
16Z on Saturday. Some MVRF to IFR conditions will be possible with
this line of showers and storms. After a night of light winds,
they will increase out of the southwest on Saturday, with gusts
of up to 25 kts expected in most places that afternoon and into
the start of the evening. Prior to that, some LLWS - from the
southwest at up to 40 kts - will be possible for a time pre-dawn.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF