Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS63 KJKL 251208 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
708 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record warmth is expected Friday through Sunday, with highs
  generally in the 60s and peak values potentially reaching 70
  degrees in some locations.

- Multiple rounds of showers will impact the region today into
  Friday night, though Saturday should be mostly dry.

- A sharp cold front will cross the area late Sunday night to
  early Monday, with temperatures plummeting to well below
  freezing by Monday evening.

- Southwest winds will gust as high as 25 to mph on Friday, with
  stronger gusts greater than 30 mph possible with Sunday night`s
  frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 520 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025

Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered in portions
of the Gulf to the Southern Plains and also extended into the
Southeast Conus while the axis of ridging extended north through
the Central Conus/Plains and into Canada. Further north and northeast
an upper level low was centered northeast of Hudson Bay with the
upper level trough extending into Quebec to portions of the
Northeast. A shortwave trough moving around this ridge was
working across the middle and Upper OH Valley region. Meanwhile,
an upper level trough was west of the west coast of the Conus with
multiple moving out of this trough and around the ridging in the
Central Conus. One of these shortwaves of note extended from BC
into MT and WY. At the surface, a wave of low pressure was tacking
through the OH Valley with the warm front having shifted east of
eastern KY into WV while the systems cold front was sagging toward
the OH River. The western end of this frontal zone extended west
from the Lower OH Valley to portions of the Central Plains to MT.
Multiple sfc waves were also along that portion of the boundary.
Over eastern KY, some showers have moved across portions of the
area, but convection has been more robust in OH and WV nearer to
and north of the frontal zone. Many valley locations in the east
(especially northeast) that decoupled had cooled off into the 40s
have warmed into the 50s though some valley locations still
linger in the upper 40s. Otherwise, coalfield ridgetops in these
area were around the 60 degree mark as were areas of more open
terrain near and west of the Daniel Boone NF.

Today, the shortwave trough will move southeast and carve out an
upper trough from Quebec across sections of the Northeast to east
of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the upper ridging extending
from the Gulf into the Central Conus will weaken with the axis of
the trough reaching the MS Valley to western Great Lakes vicinity
near sunset this evening. This weakening will occur as the
shortwave trough over western Canada into the MT vicinity and
another weaker one move to the Canadian Prairies/International
border vicinity. The upper ridge is progged to remain centered
over the Gulf to Southern Plains vicinity tonight with the axis to
the north moving east though further weakening with a trend of
height falls at 500 mb that will begin later today continuing into
the night. As this occurs, the initial shortwave trough near the
US/Canadian border should reach the western Great Lakes to upper
MS Valley by late tonight. Meanwhile, the sfc wave currently over
the OH Valley will trek to the mid Atlantic coast today with the
trailing front sagging south back into the Commonwealth but
stalling there as sfc high pressure passes across Ontario to
Quebec and sections of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, as the
shortwave near the US/Canadian border treks toward the Great
Lakes/Upper MS Valley, a sfc wave should track across portions of
the Plains today reaching the Quad Cities vicinity late tonight.
Downstream of this wave, the wavering frontal zone should return
back north as a warm front as the night progresses. This will put
the region back into the warm sector leading into Friday.

With the wavering boundary in the vicinity scattered showers are
anticipated at times through today and into tonight. Moisture
will continue to persist generally below 700 mb during this
timeframe with the boundary in the area. Mild temperatures, with
readings generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal will persist
despite continued low clouds.

For Friday, the shortwave trough that will near the Great Lakes
late tonight will continue across the Great Lakes region on
Friday reaching the eastern Great Lakes as the period ends.
Meanwhile, the sfc low should track across IL, IN, and OH and near
the KPIT vicinity early Friday evening. The region will remain in
the warm sector during the day, though the wavering frontal zone
will again begin to sag toward the OH River by late in the day. As
the ridging further weakens and there are additional height falls,
the westerlies will increase in magnitude as the sfc low passes
to the north. Eventually as the day progresses there will be an
increase in the moisture below 700 mb and the moisture transport
magnitude and this is currently anticipated to result in an
increase in shower activity as well as coverage of this activity
during the afternoon to early evening on Friday.

Bufkit momentum transfer and convective allowing models suggest
that in the warm sector on Friday with daytime mixing wind gusts
from midday through the afternoon should exceed NBM deterministic
values. Values exceeding the NBM 90th percentile appears probable
that wind gusts to at least 25KT if not the 25 to 30KT range for
peak gusts will occur in several locations. Wind gusts were
trended higher nearer to the 90th percentile values. However, with
the Consshort wind gusts, 00Z HREF mean gusts, and wind gusts in
recent HRRR runs suggesting higher as does the Bufkit momentum
transfer particularly in the GFS, these values may ultimately
trend higher than forecast. The potential for wind gusts of 30 mph
or stronger was added to the HWO this cycle. These southwest
winds over the higher terrain near the VA will also have a
downslope component off of Black and Pine Mountains and Max T for
places such as Harlan, Cumberland, Whitesburg, and Elkhorn City
was adjusted to higher than the NBM deterministic though Max T
ultimately could be higher in these areas on Friday. Highs on
Friday should reach 20 or more degrees above normal on average. As
hinted at earlier, isolated to scattered showers are possible
through much of the day, with chances for showers increasing in
the afternoon and evening as the sfc low tracks near the OH River
and deeper moisture/higher PW air moves in.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 637 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

While the beginning of the long term forecast period continues to be
defined by unseasonably warm temperatures and periodic precipitation
chances, a significant pattern shift is in store early next week.
Progressive northwesterly to westerly flow around the northern
periphery of the past week`s dominant mid/upper level ridging will
persist for a few more days. As weaker disturbances navigate through
this flow, a series of frontal boundaries will pass through the
forecast area. These initial fronts appear fairly weak; they will
produce little day-to-day change in the sensible weather forecast
for Eastern Kentucky. However, a stronger system looks to impact the
commonwealth early next week. While there remains some uncertainty
in that system`s forecast details, it is poised to usher a much
colder airmass into the forecast area on Monday. Temperatures will
go from 20-25 degrees above normal values at the start of the period
to 5-10 degrees below normal at the end of the period. The colder
airmass also looks much drier, which further reinforces the notion
that the final frontal passage will yield more noticeable changes in
the region`s sensible weather forecast.

The period opens on Friday night with a weaker cold front sagging
through the forecast area. Ongoing scattered light rain showers will
accordingly taper off from NW to SE overnight, as will the gusty
winds discussed in the short term section. Forecast guidance
collectively depicts the magnitude of Friday`s winds/gusts
decreasing after sunset, and winds should shift towards a more
westerly/northwesterly orientation post-fropa. It is plausible that
the front will not make it all the way through the forecast area by
Saturday morning, as the weak shortwave troughing aloft will quickly
be followed by ridging and midlevel height rises. This yields
somewhat of a split forecast on Saturday, with a 10 degree
temperature gradient across the forecast area. Locations north of
the Mountain Parkway are more likely to be in the cooler post-
frontal regime, with morning lows near 50 and afternoon highs closer
to 60. Further to the south, warmer MinTs in the mid/upper 50s will
give afternoon highs a head start. Expect highs in the mid/upper 60s
south of the Mountain Parkway, with a few readings closer to 70
possible closer to Cumberland River Basin. The proximity of the
midlevel ridge favors drier conditions and light and variable winds
during the daytime hours on Saturday, but active weather returns on
Sunday.

The ridge axis propagates further to the east on Sunday morning,
when a deeper upper level trough is forecast to dig into the Great
Plains. Its surface reflection, a strengthening wave cyclone, will
eject out of the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes states as
the day progresses. Together, these synoptics set up a deeper warm
air advection and moisture return regime over the forecast area. The
strengthening low level jet out ahead of this system will push a
warm front through the area on Sunday morning, resulting in renewed
precipitation chances and increasing temperatures. A few elevated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the Bluegrass with this
system`s warm frontal passage, but the greatest sensible weather
impacts from this system will come from the system`s trailing cold
front later that evening.

Gusty SW return flow will pump Sunday afternoon`s temperatures into
the upper 60s/lower 70s across the entire forecast area. This will
correspond with a corridor of marginally-favorable instability for
potentially stronger thunderstorms ahead of the system`s cold front,
but the forecast guidance suite continues to trend that frontal
passage later and later. It is looking increasingly likely that
FROPA will not align with diurnal temperature maximums, which should
mitigate the risk for widespread severe weather in Eastern Kentucky.
However, a further-strengthening 850mb jet (peaking between 50 and
55 knots on Sunday night) will pump increasing amounts of moisture
into the region on Sunday night and allow convective showers to
persist. Shear parameters are marginally favorable for organized
convection, and a linear band of gusty showers could set up
immediately ahead of the best frontal forcing on Sunday night.
BUFKIT momentum transfer soundings and deterministic wind gust data
continue to suggest that winds between 30 and 40 knots are possible
with this activity. This is more than enough to cause nuisance-level
impacts to outdoor furniture, trash cans, and holiday decorations,
but if a nocturnal low-level inversion emerges, the strongest winds
may remain elevated above the surface. As higher-resolution guidance
begins to resolve this system this weekend, these convective details
will become more clear. Storm total QPF remains in the 0.5 to 0.75
inch range with this forecast package, a beneficial wetting rain.
Thus, the most noticeable impacts from this front will come from the
significant decrease in temperatures expected behind it.

The post-frontal cold air advection with Sunday`s system continues
to look quite potent, with 850mb temperatures steadily dropping to
near or below -10 degrees Celsius by Monday evening in the 00z model
data. Due to the trend towards a later frontal passage with each
passing model run, there is a significant degree of model spread in
the ensemble output for Sunday night and Monday afternoon`s surface
temperatures. Monday`s temperatures may not follow the traditional
diurnal curve, with highs occurring early in the morning. For now,
the Min/Max T grids were matched to what was in the hourly NBM, but
it is important to note that the exact values are hard to pinpoint
amidst 9 standard deviations of model spread. Regardless of the
precise thermometer readings, blustery surface winds out of the
west and northwesterly flow around the backside of the troughing
aloft will advect a much colder, but drier, continental airmass into
the region. Precipitation could end as light snow showers or
flurries on Monday, but little to no accumulation is forecast. The
cold continues on Tuesday, when high temperatures will struggle to
warm above freezing. With lows in the teens/near 20, this marks a 30-
40 degree temperature swing relative to earlier in the forecast
period. Such values are near to just below climatological averages
for late December in Eastern Kentucky, which are highs near 45 and
lows near 30. West-northwesterly flow around the base of broader
troughing should keep conditions dry through New Year`s Eve, and
temperatures are expected to moderate to near-normal values for the
start of 2026.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025

VFR was occurring at issuance time for most locations while the
southwestern ob sites from KBYL to KSME and south were VFR at
issuance. A few spotty showers were also occurring, but the main
initial weather of note is the low clouds. Guidance continues to
have ceilings lowering today into IFR if not lower in some cases.
The caveat is the more southwestern locations south of the TAF
sites near the TN border that will largely remain MVFR. This
occurs as a cold front sags into the area and likely stalls
during the first 12 hours of the period. This boundary is then
expected to lift back north as a warm front late in the period as
sfc low moving along it tracks to near the IA/IL border by the
end of the period. Behind that boundary some locations in the
southern portion of the CWA may improve from IFR to MVFR late.
Southwest to west winds at less than 10KT are expected to begin
the period with locations north of the front becoming northerly
and light during the first 12 hours of the period. During the
second 12 hours, winds should remain light becoming southeasterly
in the north and south to southwest in the south as the front
lifts north.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP