Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

252
FXUS63 KJKL 180135
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
935 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.

- The next substantive chance at rain arrives Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025

A band of virga and a few sprinkles, evident on radar imagery,
is exiting northeast through the Big Sandy basin late this
evening and should be clear of the JKL CWA within the next hour or
so. Clouds should also largely clear away by midnight, allowing
for efficient radiative cooling. However, a surface pressure
gradient, nearing 4 mb across the CWA, will likely be sufficient
to keep at least some limited mixing going over the ridges, open
terrain and in broader valleys. The more sheltered, narrow far
eastern valleys are still likely to decouple. Only notable change
with this update was to raise overnight minimum temperatures on
ridges and in open terrain a degree or two in many locations while
also lowering minimum values in the most sheltered far eastern
narrow valleys by a similar amount. Expect lows to range from
around 40F in the colder eastern hollows to the mid 50s on thermal
belt ridges and over the open terrain of the Cumberland/Pennyroyal
Plateaus and Bluegrass.

UPDATE Issued at 531 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025

A weak mid-level wave is noted to be moving across the Lower Ohio
Valley this afternoon. There is a line of what looks like rain
showers associated with this feature. However, given the dry
air at the surface (RH values generally 30 percent or less)
suspect much of this is virga. Even so opted to add in some
sprinkles with this activity given some of the higher returns
showing up on the WSR-88D. Outside of this very minor update
overall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 503 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025

Surface high pressure is departing to our east this afternoon
while a cold front approaches from the Midwest. Aloft, large
scale ridging is moving east over the region. However, there is a
shortwave trough rippling through the ridge, which is bringing
us clouds late this afternoon. There is a band of mostly virga
falling from these clouds, but some sprinkles have made it to the
ground over our far southwest counties. With very dry air at
800-850 mb, nothing more than sprinkles is expected. Once the
shortwave passes by, mainly clear skies should prevail overnight.
This will allow for radiating. However, low level flow will also
be increasing ahead of the front. This should keep ridges, open
terrain, and valleys mainly mixed with lows in the 50s. Eastern
valleys should still be able to decouple from the flow and achieve
chilly low in the 40s.

Once deeper mixing commences on Friday, winds will pick up
everywhere. Gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected during the day.
A similar scenario to tonight will be present on Friday night.
Moisture returning will help to keep valleys a bit warmer on
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 503 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025

The cold front approaching in the short term period will stall to
our northwest on Saturday. Models continue to back off on the
potential of precip progressing into our area with this front
during the weekend, and the POP has been reduced in this forecast
package. A closed low moving northeast in the flow over the
Midwest will support a surface low which will propel the cold
front through our area on Monday. Dew points are forecast to climb
into the 50s to near 60 before the front arrives. With frontal
forcing and geopotential height falls as the upper level low
passes to our northwest and north, it should be enough for showers
and thunderstorms. Only a modest cool down will occur behind the
cold front, with the upper level flow only briefly backing to the
west and then returning to the southwest. This will only allow a
glancing shot of the cooler air. The frontal boundary eventually
returns as a warm front later in the week, but there isn`t good
model agreement on timing or on smaller scale features, causing
forecast confidence to decline beginning at mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025

Mid-level ceilings (generally 10-15K ft AGL) will attend the
passage of a disturbance this evening. Virga or a sprinkle cannot
be ruled out. Low level wind shear will then become a concern
overnight and early Friday morning as south southwesterly winds
pick up just off the surface. Wind shear will ease as
heating/mixing occurs during the day Friday, but surface winds
will then begin to gust up to around 25 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL